A new online tool developed for government and public health service officials predicts COVID-19 disease The modeling system forecasts the course of the epidemic, its peak and endpoints, and the size of the second wave in a community. Source: University of Notre Dame and University of South Floridatransmission at the U.S. county level. The system is intended to help manage hospital services and resources during the pandemic.

Model forecasts are based on county data of daily reported infections and current movement restrictions, such as shelter-in-place and social distancing orders. The platform developed by University of Notre Dame and University of South Florida researchers will provide information on which to base decisions for relaxing restrictions or implementing interventions.

Impacts initially modeled for the Tampa Bay, Florida, area, show how the region could be affected if government officials relaxed various restrictions, including when a second wave and peak of the COVID-19 pandemic would occur, how many people would be affected and how the need for hospital beds and ventilators would fluctuate. The data indicate the peak number of cases in the first wave has likely already occurred in the area, and that releasing lockdown restrictions before the first wave ends will lead to a significantly bigger second wave, requiring prolonged social distancing measures and planning for contact tracing and testing

The researchers are now creating models that to track and forecast COVID-19 trends for the state of Indiana.