A software tool now in development could be the way to tailor the strategies around lockdowns, such as those experienced during the current COVID-19 pandemic, to meet the varying needs of different areas, according to Sai Dinakarrao, an assistant professor at George Mason University's Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering.

Dinakarrao and researchers from University of California, Davis, and Morgan State University in Baltimore, are developing a tool that evaluates a number factors, including population density, demographics, climate and transportation statistics in order to determine the best plan to prevent surges of the virus while minimizing negative impacts to the economy.

The tool could be used by policymakers to determine where a complete lockdown is required and where the use of masks and social distancing are enough to keep people safe and allow businesses to remain open to some extent. “This would let the economy at least keep walking, if not running,” Dinakarrao said.

The tool uses current COVID-19 data and incorporates machine learning and stochastic optimization techniques to determine the best confinement strategy while considering demographics and the spread of the virus. Dinakarrao explained that their methodologies account for the uncertainty in the data resulting from variations in testing and false positives.

Now at the beginning stage of this year-long project, the team expects the tool will be useful for later waves of COVID-19, future pandemics or bioterrorism threats. “Eventually, we will develop a tool that is generic and demography-agnostic that determines the best solution for a given topology, such as a state, county, or city,” Dinakarrao said.