The most notable response to the COVID-19 pandemic is personal movement restrictions in the form of social Removing controls too quickly could lead to a resurgence that overwhelms hospital capacity. Source: Stanford Universitydistancing and quarantines in an increasing number of locations worldwide. The most frequent query posed about these measures is likely “How long does this need to be practiced?” An interactive website from Stanford University may help provide answers by modeling the temporal diffusion of COVID-19 under different social distancing measures.

The modeling tool indicates that early implementation of interventions is more important than precisely how much social contacts are limited. Advocating social distancing for periods of several weeks to months and then lifting all restrictions altogether is likely to result in a resurgence of disease transmission because many people will still be susceptible.

A second wave of the disease can be prevented with multiple interventions over a period of 12 to 18 months or more– until effective treatments or vaccines are widely available.

The modeling system will be updated as more data become available, and baseline intervention scenarios will be revised to reflect those that are implemented. The site developers also plan to fit the model to infection dynamics in specific locations so that user-chosen scenarios better reflect the future of COVID-19 in those areas.