Hoping to reduce the number of fatalities associated with natural disasters, researchers from the University of Waterloo have developed a new algorithm designed to help first responders and home-care providers assist the elderly during such events.

Because older adults living at home experience significantly higher fatality rates during natural disasters, according to the World Health Organization, researchers have designed an algorithm to locate vulnerable persons.

"Frailty combined with social isolation can mean that older adults still living at home have nowhere to turn during emergencies," said John Hirdes, a researcher in the Faculty of Applied Health Sciences at the University of Waterloo. "With a growing proportion of elderly persons choosing to reside in their own homes, it's a very real concern. Home care services need to have mechanisms in place to manage the needs of their most vulnerable clients during disasters."

Using data from interRAI’s (an international network of researchers committed to improving care and quality of life for vulnerable populations) home care assessment, the algorithm generated a list of potentially vulnerable adults receiving home care services. Looking at factors such as health status, disability, support and social isolation helped the algorithm to identify potentially vulnerable people.

"Older adults living on their own are more difficult to locate and assist than those living in healthcare facilities," said Sandy Van Solm, the Emergency Management Coordinator at the Region of Waterloo who developed the algorithm as part of her Ph.D. at Waterloo. "This algorithm helps us to plan for disasters in advance and allows responders to quickly generate an accurate list of those who may need help during a disaster."

The research team, in conjunction with the Canadian Institute for Health Information, is hoping to use the algorithm with the interRAI home-care software that is employed throughout Canada beginning this year.

"It has the potential to save hundreds of lives," said Hirdes. "It's a tool that should be top of mind for any part of the country at risk of natural disasters."

The researchers detail their work on the algorithm in the Journal of Emergency Management.