Forest ecosystems are major agents in carbon sequestration processes that can mitigate the effects of climate change. The future role of North American forests in absorbing atmospheric carbon dioxide was evaluated by an international team of researchers, based on ground-based measurements of forests across the continental U.S. This map depicts the growth capacity of forests to sequester additional carbon over the next 60 years, with red indicating limited gains even under the best-case scenarios. Source: Kai Zhu/University of California Santa Cruzand Canada.

Data from 140,000 plots in the U.S. Forest Inventory and Analysis program and the Canada Permanent Sample Plots program were analyzed to document the historical growth of forests and to project future growth. Modeling systems were also used to predict forest conditions under climate change scenarios in the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, before quantifying the extent to which current forest biomass approaches future biomass potential.

The result: North American forests have reached 78 percent of their capacity to sequester carbon and will gain only 22 percent capacity by the 2080s. The analysis underscores the need to protect North American forests and reduce deforestation as well as disturbances such as disease outbreaks and wildfire.

The researchers said these forests are approaching the saturation point as older trees plateau. Future growth is primarily limited to the pine forests of the East and Southeast.

Scientists from East China Normal University, University of California Santa Cruz, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University and Northern Arizona University participated in this research, which is published in Nature Communications.