The Energy Department's Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that renewable energy resources will be the fastest-growing source of electricity generation through 2050, driven by continued declines in the capital costs for solar and wind technologies.

It said that slow growth in U.S. energy consumption, a result of continued increases in energy efficiency, and technologically enabled growth in domestic oil and natural gas production mean the U.S. will remain a net energy exporter through mid-century.

A newly released annual energy outlook from EIA projects domestic energy demand to grow 0.3% per year on average through 2050. That rate is slower than the average annual growth of 1.9% in U.S. gross domestic product.

By contrast, EIA projected in September that world energy consumption would grow by nearly 50% between 2018 and 2050. It said most of that growth would come from countries that are not in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, and would be focused in regions where strong economic growth is driving demand, particularly Asia.

Source: EIAIn making its latest projections about the U.S. energy sector, EIA said in late January that gains in appliance efficiency in the residential and commercial sectors, increases in efficiency of new capital equipment in the industrial sector and increases in fuel economy partially offset the growth in the number of households, industrial activity and vehicle-miles traveled.

Growth in solar for electricity

The report also projects the share of U.S. electricity generation from renewable sources to double from 19% of total generation in 2019 to 38% by 2050. Solar contributes the most to the growth, more than tripling from 14% of total renewable generation in 2019 to 46% by 2050, EIA said. Coal and nuclear generation decline through the mid-2020s due to capacity retirements. However, their share of the generation mix stabilizes later in the projection period as economically viable plants remain in service.

Source: EIAEIA said that at the same time, the U.S. is projected to continue to produce historically high levels of crude oil and natural gas. Crude oil production is projected to set annual records through the mid-2020s and remain near 14.0 million barrels per day (b/d) through the mid-2040s. EIA projects U.S. dry natural gas production will reach 45 trillion cubic feet by 2050. The continued development of tight oil and shale gas resources supports growth in these fuels.

Net exporter

With production growth outpacing growth of domestic consumption of crude oil, petroleum products and natural gas, U.S. net exports of these fuels increase. EIA said the U.S. will continue to export more petroleum and other liquids than it imports. It projects a peak at more than 3.8 million barrels per day (b/d) in the early 2030s before gradually declining to 0.2 million b/d in 2050 as domestic consumption slowly rises.

Cameron LNG export terminal. Source: MitsuiMeanwhile, U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports and natural gas pipeline exports to Canada and to Mexico continue to rise through the 2020s before flattening for the remainder of the projection period.

In late November, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) approved four LNG export projects and related facilities. Three projects would be located along the Brownsville Ship Channel in Brownsville, Texas. A fourth would expand a currently operating facility near Corpus Christi, Texas.

Credit: EIAWith the federal approval in hand, project developers now must decide whether or not to move ahead with construction. Recent reports suggest that headwinds may slow LNG development work in the near term.

Consulting firm Deloitte said that decades of low prices in end-user markets and difficulty faced by developers in signing long-term off-take contracts pose challenges to new LNG projects.

And S&P Global Platts Analytics said that outlook is in line with its expectation that U.S. liquefaction capacity growth will slow after 2021, reflecting what it called "the uncertainty over when many of the projects that are to make up the second wave of American terminals" will break ground, if at all.

Source: EIAEmissions growth

After falling in the first half of the projection period, U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions resume what EIA said is "modest growth" in the 2030s. Even so, CO₂ emissions are forecast to remain lower than 2019 levels through 2050.

Until about 2030, U.S. energy-related CO₂ emissions fall as a result of retirements of coal-fired generation capacity and corresponding changes in the mix of fuels consumed by the electric power sector. After 2030, increases in energy demand in the other sectors —predominantly transportation and industrial — result in increases in emissions.