The Energy Department's Energy Information Administration (EIA) said it expects 42 gigawatts (GW) of new capacity additions to start commercial operation in 2020.

Solar and wind represent almost 32 GW, or 76%, of these additions. Wind accounts for the largest share of the additions at 44%, followed by solar and natural gas at 32% and 22%, respectively. The remaining 2% comes from hydroelectric generators and battery storage.

Source: EIAThe agency said that scheduled capacity retirements of 11 GW will be driven primarily by coal (51%), followed by natural gas (33%) and nuclear (14%). Other smaller renewable, petroleum and hydro capacity account for the remaining 2% of 2020 retirements.

Capacity additions

Wind. EIA said that operators have scheduled 18.5 GW of wind capacity to come online in 2020. That amount would surpass the record 13.2 GW of new capacity that was set in 2012. More than 60%, or 11.2 GW, of wind capacity is scheduled to come online in November and December of 2020, which is typical for solar and wind.

EIA said that the expected expiration of the U.S. production tax credit (PTC) at the end of 2020 is driving the large wind capacity addition. Phase-out of the PTC extension is also reflected in the amount of wind capacity additions that came online in 2019, which EIA expects will total 11.8 GW. Five states account for more than half of the 2020 planned wind capacity additions. Texas accounts for 32% followed by Oklahoma at 6%, then Wyoming, Colorado and Missouri at 5% each.

(Read "Here's why wind energy development is likely to peak in 2020.")

Solar photovoltaics. EIA said it expects 13.5 GW of solar capacity to come online in 2020. That would surpass the previous annual record addition of 8 GW in 2016. More than half of the utility-scale electric power sector solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity additions is expected to be in four states: Texas (22%), California (15%), Florida (11%) and South Carolina (10%). EIA also expects an additional 5.1 GW of small-scale solar PV capacity to enter service by the end of 2020.

Combined-cycle plants account for 6.7 GW and combustion-turbine plants account for 2.3 GW, EIA said. Source: WikipediaNatural gas. Planned natural gas capacity additions for 2020 are 9.3 GW. Combined-cycle plants account for 6.7 GW and combustion-turbine plants account for 2.3 GW, EIA said. More than 70% of these additions are in Pennsylvania, Texas, California and Louisiana.

Capacity retirements

Coal. Of the 5.8 GW of coal-fired capacity that EIA expects to be retired in 2020, half is located in Kentucky and Ohio. The retirement of Unit 3 at the Paradise plant in Kentucky (970 megawatts) would be the largest coal-fired unit to retire in the U.S. this year. The next-largest retirements will be at Elmer Smith in Kentucky and at Conesville (Unit 4) and W H Sammis (Units 1–4) in Ohio.

Natural gas. Natural gas retirements will come primarily from older units that came online in the 1950s or 1960s. EIA said it expects natural gas retirements to total 3.7 GW, and 68% of those retirements are steam turbine plants. Most of the retiring capacity, 2.2 GW, comes from Alamitos, Huntington Beach and Redondo Beach AES plants in California. The Inland Empire Energy Center (a 10-year-old, 700 MW single-shaft combined-cycle plant) is also retiring because it has been operating below capacity for several years.

Source: EIANuclear. Two nuclear plants totaling 1.6 GW are currently scheduled to retire in 2020. Indian Point Unit 2, located in New York, is scheduled to retire in April. Iowa’s only nuclear power plant, Duane Arnold Energy Center, is scheduled to retire in December.