The dominance of coal in the global energy economy is due to diminish in the near term, largely driven by shifts in the power sector, which accounts for two-thirds of total current coal consumption. While industrial demand for coal is projected to remain stable, coal-fired power generation is forecast to decline from 2026 onward as a result of expanded renewable and nuclear energy capacity.

According to the International Energy Agency’s Coal 2025 outlook, coal output will decline in most major producer countries through 2030. By that year, consumption is forecast to ease by 3% compared with 2025, taking it below its 2023 level. Global power generation from coal is expected to sink below its 2021 level by the end of this decade.

The most substantial growth in coal consumption by 2030 is expected to take place in India, where demand is forecast to rise by 3% per year on average, leading to a cumulative increase of over 200 million tons (Mt). The fastest growth is expected to happen in Southeast Asia, where coal demand is forecast to grow by more than 4% per year to 2030.

U.S. coal demand is projected to decline by 6% per year on average through 2030, based on ongoing growth in renewable generation capacity and the continuation of coal plant retirements.,

“Despite uncharacteristic trends in several key coal markets in 2025, our forecast for the coming years has not changed substantially from a year ago: we expect global coal demand to plateau before edging down by 2030,” said International Energy Agency director of energy markets and security Keisuke Sadamori. “More broadly, trends in electricity demand growth and the integration of renewables worldwide could impact coal’s trajectory.”