In the past decade, the space sector has undergone a transformation. No longer is it solely the domain of governments; it has become a veritable hive of private sector activity, with private operators pioneering new methods to access space.

Commercial activity in space has witnessed significant growth over the past couple of decades, increasing from $110 billion in 2005 to $357 billion in 2020, accounting for about 80% of the $447 billion global space economy. This burgeoning market, projected by Morgan Stanley to surpass the $1 trillion mark by 2040, finds its roots in the private aspirations of pioneering scientists and engineers such as Robert Goddard, Herman Oberth, Konstantin Tsiolkovsky, and Robert Esnault-Pelterie.

Yet, the turning point toward commercial space operations didn't occur until 1962 with the launch of Telstar 1, the first transatlantic communication satellite, which marked the beginning of legislation affirming the right of private companies to own and operate commercial satellites and set the stage for the development of laws and regulations encouraging commercial exploration and exploitation of space.

Technological leaps and improvements in manufacturing capabilities have played pivotal roles in this shift to the private sector. Smaller spacecraft can now be launched into Earth's orbit at a fraction of the cost, enabling a new generation of 'new space' missions. These missions encompass a broad spectrum of activities, from providing persistent Earth imaging to establishing global communications and internet connectivity.

Satellite constellations, comprised of groups of satellites working in synchrony, have emerged as one of the key developments of this shift. These constellations, often consisting of thousands of satellites, are particularly notable in low Earth orbit, marking one of the most disruptive changes to space traffic and our utilization of space in recent memory.

Graphic to show how 1584 Starlink satellites will be positioned into 72 orbital planes of 22 satellites each. Source: Lamid58/ CC BY-SA 4.0

The increasing deployment of these satellite constellations in low Earth orbit, however, presents unique challenges. Satellites and orbital debris, which account for over 90% of the tracked objects in Earth's orbit, pose collision risks. As the number of operators and satellites increases, especially those new to the field, the potential for collisions could rise, creating more debris and hazards.

Space traffic management in an era of new space operations

These issues accentuate the necessity for implementing effective space traffic management strategies. It is through such strategies that the safety and sustainability of space operations can be ensured. To address these challenges, it is important to draw on multidisciplinary expertise from the technical, legal and insurance sectors.

The management of space traffic and prevention of collisions require sophisticated tracking and predictive technology. At the heart of these measures is the concept of Space Situational Awareness (SSA), which involves tracking and predicting the movement of all human-made objects in space. This allows for better planning of spacecraft trajectories and prompt reaction to potential collision events.

A major component of SSA is the deployment of ground and space-based sensor systems capable of detecting and tracking objects in Earth's orbit. Advances in radar and optical tracking technologies, along with artificial intelligence algorithms, have vastly improved the accuracy of object tracking, contributing to more effective management of space traffic. Additionally, ongoing developments in quantum computing and machine learning are anticipated to further refine the predictability and management of space traffic.

Moreover, the success of SSA largely depends on international collaboration. A global approach is required for tracking and predicting the trajectories of space objects. This involves sharing data and resources among countries and space agencies to ensure that all regions of space are properly monitored.

Addressing orbital debris and democratization of space

The perception of space as a 'big sky', where interactions between satellites were incredibly rare, has changed. The influx of new players and increasing number of commercial activities are crowding space, necessitating structure and norms of behavior to guarantee safe operations for all involved.

While the international framework for safe space operations provides a basic structure, it lacks practical operational guidance. Addressing these issues requires a concerted effort to deal with the challenges presented by the substantial increase in commercial space activity and the democratization of space.

Mitigating orbital debris, a subset of Space Traffic Management (STM), has seen success in generating guidelines, best practices and standards. Several U.S. organizations, including the U.S. Federal Communications Commission (FCC), U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Agency (NOAA), include debris mitigation requirements as part of their licensing processes.

Additionally, the Combined Space Operations Center (CSpOC) under the U.S. Space Force's Space Operations Command bears the responsibility of tracking objects in orbit for the nation and providing conjunction warnings for operational satellites worldwide.

However, the democratization of space is likely to result in a far more diverse range of operators, many with relatively little space experience. The complexity of coordinating space activities is set to increase, necessitating a broader-than-traditional U.S.-centered approach to ensure safe space operations practices are maintained.

Active debris removal and on-orbit servicing

Besides monitoring space traffic, the control and reduction of space debris are critical. Here, Active Debris Removal (ADR) and On-Orbit Servicing (OOS) come into play. ADR involves the design and deployment of missions to physically remove defunct satellites or debris from orbit, whereas OOS refers to the repair, refueling, upgrading or even repurposing of satellites in space.

Several companies and agencies are already working on ADR and OOS technologies. For example, technologies such as robotic arms or nets to capture and deorbit defunct satellites or propulsion systems to push debris into a 'graveyard' orbit or towards re-entry into Earth's atmosphere are being explored.

Managing space traffic effectively is a challenging task requiring technical sophistication, global collaboration, and the development of innovative strategies. As the space environment continues to evolve, proactive steps need to be taken to ensure it remains a safe and sustainable frontier for future generations.

Author

Jody Dascalu is a freelance writer in the technology and engineering niche. She studied in Canada and earned a Bachelor of Engineering. As an avid reader, she enjoys researching upcoming technologies and is an expert on a variety of topics.

References

Ben-Itzhak, S. (2022, January 11). Companies are commercializing outer space. Do government programs still matter? Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/01/11/companies-are-commercializing-outer-space-do-government-programs-still-matter/

Mark, C. P., & Kamath, S. (2019). Review of active space debris removal methods. Space Policy, 47, 194–206. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.spacepol.2018.12.005

Oltrogge, D., & Alfano, S. (2019). The technical challenges of better Space Situational Awareness and Space Traffic Management. Journal of Space Safety Engineering, 6(2), 72–79. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jsse.2019.05.004