EIA forecasts a drop in this summer's electricity production
David Wagman | May 09, 2019Electric power plants in the United States are forecast to generate 1,168 million megawatt-hours (MWh) of electricity during the 2019 summer months (June through August), 2% less than for the same period in 2018.
The Energy Department's Energy Information Administration (EIA) said that coal is forecast to provide 25% of U.S. generation, down from 28% last summer. Natural gas is forecast to provide the largest share of total generation this summer at 40%, up from 39% last summer.
EIA said that it expects coal-fired power plants to generate 289 million MWh of electricity this summer, 13% less than a year ago. Coal’s share of the electricity generation mix is highest in the Midwest, where the fuel provided 49% of electricity last summer. EIA expects it to provide 45% of electricity this summer.
Natural gas-fired power plants are forecast to generate 472 million MWh of electricity this summer, 2.5% more than during the same period in 2018. Natural gas is projected to account for about half of the electricity generation mix in both the South and Northeast this summer.
Nuclear power plants are forecast to provide 18% of U.S. electricity generation this summer. EIA said that is unchanged from 2018.
At the national level, 9% of the 2018 U.S. summer generation mix was from non-hydro renewable sources, which include wind, biomass, geothermal and utility-scale solar. Another 6% was from hydroelectric generation. For this coming summer, EIA forecasts those shares to be 9% for non-hydro renewables and 7% for hydro. The share of electricity generated from non-hydro and hydro renewable sources was highest in the West, where those sources accounted for 15% and 22%, respectively, in the summer of 2018. Those shares are expected to increase to 17% and 23% in the upcoming summer.
Within non-hydro renewables, wind is expected to provide the largest share of generation this summer, at 6%. On an annual basis, wind is expected to provide 8% of the national total, slightly higher than hydro’s share at 7%. If the forecast holds, EIA said this would be the first time hydro did not provide the most generation of any renewable resource.
