After a 2.7% increase in U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions in 2018, the Energy Department's analytical arm is now forecasting a 2.2% decrease for 2019. Nearly all of the forecast decrease is due to fewer emissions from coal consumption. Forecast natural gas CO₂ emissions increase and petroleum CO₂ emissions remain virtually unchanged.

Source: EIAThe Energy Information Administration (EIA) said that energy-related CO₂ emissions in the first quarter totaled 1,367 million metric tons (MMmt), which is nearly equal to those in the first quarter of 2018.

The first quarter of the year is typically the period with the highest CO₂ emissions in the United States and influences the overall annual trend. For the remainder of the year, EIA said that it expects that relatively mild forecast temperatures will keep energy demand and resulting energy-related CO₂ emissions below 2018 levels.

Source: EIAEIA forecasts that CO₂ emissions from coal will decrease by 169 MMmt in 2019, the largest decrease since 2015. By contrast, EIA projects CO₂ emissions from natural gas to increase by 53 MMmt. Both changes are largely due to forecast changes in the electricity generation mix as natural gas continues to grow as an electricity generation fuel.

Because the electric power sector consumes nearly 92% of the coal used in the United States, expectations for both overall lower electricity demand and a lower share of coal-fired electricity this summer led EIA to forecast lower coal CO₂ emissions.

Although the electric power sector is using more natural gas, EIA said it does not expect the increase in natural gas emissions in 2019 to offset the decrease in coal emissions because natural gas-fired electricity generation is less carbon-intensive than coal-fired electricity generation.

EIA said it expects that CO₂ emissions from petroleum consumption, which has risen in each of the past six years, will be virtually flat in 2019. Petroleum made up 45% of energy-related CO₂ emissions in 2018.