The U.S. power sector is making steady progress in attaining its decarbonization goals, according to U.S. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory researchers. Analysis of U.S. Energy Information Administration’s 2005 power sector projections for carbon emissions reveals that the industry is halfway toward achieving its zero emissions target.

While business-as-usual scenarios projected an increase in annual carbon dioxide emissions from 2,400 million metric tons (MMT) to 3,000 MMT from 2005 to 2020, actual 2020 emissions fell to 1,450 MMT. Power sector emissions declined by 52% below projected levels as total consumer electricity costs were 18% lower and costs to human health and the climate were 92% and 52% lower, respectively.

Main drivers behind this trend include the contributions of wind and solar power, which delivered 13 times more generation in 2020 than projected. This is also a result of technology development and state and federal policies, as prices plummeted for new wind and solar technologies. In addition, nuclear generation has largely held steady, tracking the past projections and helping to ensure no backsliding in carbon emissions.

Projected versus actual outcomes for the U.S. power sector. Source: U.S. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

Switching from coal to natural gas for power generation also played a role in lowering carbon emissions. Natural gas generation grew rapidly, driven by the shale gas revolution and low fuel prices.

Recent advancements in wind, solar and battery technologies are expected to assume important near-term roles in further power sector decarbonization. The researchers note that a large share of the capacity needed to approach a zero-carbon power sector target is already in the development pipeline: about 660 GW of wind and solar have requested transmission access, more than half of what might be required to meet the emissions reduction goal.

Future progress will also depend on development of long-duration energy storage capacity, carbon capture technology and resilient transmission infrastructure.