Thermal power plants will face growing constraints as a result of climate change, with temperature-related curtailments potentially causing billions of dollars in lost revenue and requiring a significant buildout of global capacity, according to researchers from Syracuse University and Dartmouth College.

The analysis quantifies the potential future risk from heatwaves and droughts that have already hit power plants in the U.S. and Europe with increasing frequency over recent years. Temperature and water runoff data were combined with power plant outage records for nuclear plants in the U.S., as well as coal, gas and oil-fired plants in the European Union in order to estimate future curtailments. Each degree of global warming is estimated to increase global curtailment of thermal power plants by 0.8% to 1.2% during times of peak Thermal power plants will face growing constraints as a result of climate change. Source: Getty Imageselectricity demand.

More than half of the fossil-fueled and nuclear plants in the U.S. alone are located in areas forecast to face climate-related water stress by the end of this decade under a business-as-usual scenario. Water- and air-cooling systems used at thermal plants become less efficient at higher temperatures and operators must curtail or shut down their facilities because of local regulations that limit water withdrawal during drought or periods of high temperatures. On the hottest days, power plant capacity can be reduced by more than 10% because the air and water used to cool the plants is too warm.

The research published in Environmental Research Letters suggests an additional 18 GW to 27 GW of capacity, or 40 to 60 additional average-sized power plants, may be needed to offset this global power loss under warming climatic conditions.