The contribution of hydroelectric power to global energy supply doubled during the last 30 years and is projected to double again from the current level by 2050. However, water supply impacts associated with climate change pose threats to the continued expansion of this renewable energy resource, spurring an analysis of prospective hydroelectric power production under global warming levels of 1.5° C and 2° C.Average of gross hydropower capacity in different provinces of Sumatra under the historical period and under global warming levels of 1.5° C and 2° C. Source: Ying Meng et al.

Climate warming and power generation scenarios were evaluated for Sumatra, an Indonesian island considered vulnerable to sea level rise and with significant hydroelectric development potential. Optimal locations of hydropower plants were modeled, and power production based on selected hydropower plants and the reduction in carbon emissions that would result from displacing fossil fuels were forecast.

The study published in Water Resources Research indicates a positive impact of the 1.5° C and 2° C global warming levels on the hydropower production in Sumatra. The ratio of hydropower production to power demand provided by 1.5° C of global warming is 40% greater than that provided by 2° C of global warming under a scenario that assumes stabilization without overshooting the target after 2100. This is due to a decrease in precipitation and the highest discharge decrease in the region under this scenario. The carbon dioxide emission reduction under a 1.5° C increase is greater than that under a 2° C temperature rise.

Researchers from Harbin Institute of Technology (China), Southern University of Science and Technology (China) and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) in Austria contributed to this study.