Conventional oil and natural gas discoveries in the U.S. over the past three years posted the lowest levels in Conventional oil and gas discoveries during the past three years are at the lowest levels in seven decades and a significant rebound is not expected. Source: Business Wireseven decades, largely a result of low oil prices and competition from short cycle-time unconventional projects, such as shale resource development.

An IHS Markit analysis concludes that the decline in conventional oil and gas discoveries followed a pullback in wildcat drilling during the last decade. Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration also confirm a slowing rate of crude oil production growth due to relatively flat crude oil price levels and slowing growth in well-level productivity.

In 2014, 161 new field wildcats were drilled in deepwater and ultra-deep water where larger discovery sizes are expected. By 2018, that number dropped to 68 exploratory wells as drilling in frontier basins declined by a similar amount.

The potential to reverse these trends may rest with operators returning to conventional exploration to reap the rewards of larger petroleum resource discoveries as financial returns from unconventional production onshore decline.