Artist's view of the Site C hydroelectric project. Source: BC Hydro

Utility regulators in British Columbia say they are “not persuaded” that a multi-billion-dollar hydroelectric project under construction in the province will remain on schedule for a November 2024 in-service date.

The panel also finds that the project is not within the proposed budget of C$8.335 billion ($6.48 billion), and says that current completion costs may be in excess of C$10 billion ($7.77 billion).

The findings came in a nearly 300-page report [pdf] issued Nov. 1 by the British Columbia Utilities Commission. The report was ordered in August by the Provincial Government [pdf], which directed the regulators to probe certain aspects of BC Hydro’s Site C hydroelectric project.

A statement from the project developer, BC Hydro, was not immediately available.

(Read: "Massive Hydroelectric Project Gets a Second Look.")

In particular, the BCUC was directed to report on the implications of continuing, ending or suspending construction with the option to resume by 2024. It also was directed to determine what, if any, commercially feasible generating projects and demand-side management tools could provide similar benefits to ratepayers with an equal or lower unit energy cost than the Site C project.

The report says that the least attractive of the three scenarios is to suspend and restart the project in 2024. Doing so would add at least an estimated C$3.6 billion to final costs and is “by far the most expensive” of the three scenarios.

In addition, the BPUC considers it the riskiest scenario because, among other things, environmental permits will expire and that will require new applications and approvals. What’s more, Site C termination and remediation costs could total around C$1.8 billion, in addition to the costs of finding alternative energy sources to meet demand.

BC Hydro’s mid-load forecast was found by the regulatory body to be “excessively optimistic.” The BPUC considers it more appropriate to use a low-load forecast instead. Additional risks could arise should demand end up being less than even the low case.

Regulators also say that “increasingly viable” alternative energy sources such as wind, geothermal and industrial curtailment could provide similar benefits to ratepayers as the Site C project with an equal or lower Unit Energy Cost.

The Site C Inquiry Panel received 620 written submissions and heard from 304 speakers during 11 Community Input Sessions throughout the province. In addition, the panel held three First Nations Input Sessions and two Technical Presentation Sessions.