Temperatures across the northeastern U.S. will increase much faster than the global average, according to University of Massachusetts Amherst researchers.

The 2 C warming target adopted in the recent Paris Agreement on climate change will be reached about 20 years earlier for this part of the U.S. compared to the rest of the world.

Annual mean surface air temperature anomalies (1901-1930) and relative global warming thresholds (2005 to 2099). Source: Ambarish V. Karmalkar, Raymond S. BradleyThe contiguous U.S. is projected to cross the 2 C warming threshold about 10 to 20 years earlier than the global mean annual temperature. The northeast, expected to be the fastest warming region, is projected to warm by 3 C when global warming reaches 2 C. The southwest U.S. also is projected to warm at a faster rate than the southeast or southern Great Plains.

Regional precipitation projections for warming of 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C remain uncertain, but the eastern U.S. is projected to experience wetter winters and the Great Plains and Northwest are projected to experience drier summers in the future.

The analysis is based on climate model simulations that contributed to the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project.