The failure of one or more outdated locks or dams on the Upper Mississippi River and Illinois Waterway (UMR-IWW) could lead to billions of dollars in economic losses by tying up the movement of bulk commodities, a study commissioned by the U.S. Department of Agriculture has found.

Economic losses related to grain barge transportation could reach $2 billion if Lock 25 on the Mississippi River were inoperable for one year. Image credit: USDA. Barge transportation is of great importance to U.S. agriculture because of its comparatively low transport costs compared to overland modes. However, the inefficiencies of the locks on the Mississippi River—the country's primary corridor for the movement of bulk commodities such as corn and soybeans—are already creating additional fuel and labor expenses for barge operators, boosting grain and oilseed transportation costs and hurting the competitiveness of U.S. producers on the world market, according to the study, carried out by the University of Tennessee Institute of Agriculture.

The study's analysis of the economic impacts of the closure of Lock 25, near Winfield, Missouri, on the Upper Mississippi River—which was performed by Edward Yu, associate professor in the Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics—concludes that:

· Aggregate economic activity related to grain barge transportation would be reduced by $933 million (a 40% decrease) if the lock is closed from September to November during the 2024/25 marketing year. The reduction would reach nearly $2 billion if it is unavailable for the entire marketing year.

· The decline in economic surplus in the corn and soybean sector due to the lock's closure could lead to the loss of more than 7,000 jobs, $1.3 billion in labor income and about $2.4 billion of economic activity (total industry output) annually.

“Resulting study recommendations stress how crucial it is to maintain the navigability of the UMR-IWW system for U.S. food and farm products and the risk of delaying infrastructure improvements,” says Yu.