Small Business Index Remains Positive Despite Recent Slowdown
Engineering360 News Desk | November 04, 2015The Paychex | IHS Small Business Jobs Index declined in October from 100.44 to 100.34. Although small business employment (SBE) remains positive with an index level above 100, the national index has moderated, declining 0.31% in the last quarter and 0.49% over the past year.
The Mountain region was again the top-performing regional index in absolute terms, with an index of 101.64. Washington State rose to the top spot among states, followed by Texas and Georgia, all with index levels of 102 or higher. Dallas continues as the top-ranked metro area by a wide margin, the report says.
Other Services (except Public Administration), as defined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics include offerings as varied as repair and maintenance to personal and laundry services, ranks as the top industry sector for SBE growth at 104.21. The construction industry ranks second with an index above 101.
“The Paychex | IHS Small Business Jobs Index retreated again in October, for the third consecutive month,” says James Diffley, chief regional economist at IHS. “Nevertheless, at 100.34, small business job gains proceed at a pace 0.34% faster than in our base period 10 years ago.”
“Even though the pace of small business growth has slowed, the index has consistently been above 100, indicating a slow but steady continuation of job gains,” says Martin Mucci, president and CEO of Paychex.
The national index has trended downward throughout the year, now 0.50% below its 2015 high in February. While job gains continue, this is the first time the pace of small business growth has slowed for three straight months since early 2013. The rate of job growth decreased in eight of the nine regions during the past month as well as the past year, with New England increasing only marginally, 0.04% in October and 0.08% since October 2014.
At 101.64, Mountain remained the top-ranked region in October. New England was the only region to show a positive one-month and 12-month growth rate, propelled by the Boston metro and Massachusetts. By contrast, the rate of employment growth has declined seven consecutive months in the West North Central, which registered the lowest 12-month growth rate at -2.12%.
Wisconsin, at 100.95, improved in October and had the best 12-month growth rate among states at 0.60%. Small business job growth slowed the most in Tennessee, North Carolina and Michigan during the past month.
At 105.76, Dallas is relatively unchanged over the past quarter and still well above other metro areas. Seattle ranked second and is the only other metro index above 102, but has retreated 1.78% during the past year. However, the pace of employment growth in Houston weakened further, falling 0.61% in October and 3.39% over the past 12 months. At 100.06, Houston is now at its lowest level since 2010.
Other Services (except Public Administration) hit a record high in October, 104.21, and is outpacing all other industry sectors by a wide margin. At 101.70, construction is the second-ranked industry index and has been above 101 for more than four years.
Leisure and Hospitality had its worst one-month result in over two years (-0.67%), as its index fell to 100.00, giving up all of the momentum gained in 2015. Manufacturing remains the lowest-ranked industry and its 1.43% decline over the past year coincides with the general manufacturing cutbacks tied to the increase in the value of the dollar and retrenchment in oil and gas.
The Paychex | IHS Small Business Jobs Index analyzes same-store, year-over-year worker count changes to identify and track small business employment trends using real small business payroll data from the Paychex client base. The index is based on aggregated data from approximately 350,000 small businesses across the United States that employ fewer than 50 workers.