Researchers from the Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC) Foundation have developed a model for predicting where and when an oil spill will make landfall, improving response times and cleanup efforts.

To make oil-beaching forecasts using the MEDSLIK-II oil spill model, researchers looked at data surrounding a 2018 oil spill off the coast of the French island of Corsica in the Mediterranean Sea. A passenger boat and a container ship collided, resulting in an oil slick that stretched 35 km. Using data obtained about the event, researchers were able to construct the model, focusing specifically on factors such as wind, current, waves and sea surface temperature forecasts, all of which are factors critical for determining where and when an oil slick will make landfill.

During testing, researchers determined that the model effectively predicted where the Corsica oil spill would make landfall in the simulated days ahead of it reaching the coastline. However, researchers believe that they need to improve the model’s predictability if it is going to be used to help improve response times to mitigate the environmental impact of oil spills. To do this, the team intends to look at other oil spill data.

The research appears in the Marine Pollution Bulletin.