20-Year Outlook for Canadian Energy
David Wagman | October 31, 2018Renewable sources of electricity will experience "significant growth" and continue to play a large role in Canada's electricity generation mix over the next 20 years, according to the new energy outlook report from the National Energy Board (NEB).
The report said that despite price discounts for Canadian crude oil, oil and natural gas production will grow from current levels over the forecast period. (Read the forecast.)
Improvements in energy efficiency will enable Canadians to use less energy even as the economy grows. Sources to meet Canada's energy demand will become less carbon-intensive in the baseline Reference Case, with more natural gas and less coal and oil products used in the future.
The National Energy Board is an independent federal regulator of several parts of Canada's energy industry. It regulates pipelines, energy development and trade in the public interest.
The NEB report said that hydro, renewables and natural gas will lead the growth in total Canadian electricity generation, while coal and nuclear generation will experience a decline. Renewable sources will play an important role in Canada's electricity mix with wind capacity doubling and solar nearly tripling over the projection period.
The NEB's outlook is that crude oil production will increase by 58% and natural gas production will increase by 23% over the next 20 years in the baseline case.
The Reference Case is based on a current economic outlook, a moderate view of energy prices, and includes climate and energy policies similar to those announced at the time of analysis.
In a scenario with greater adoption of new energy technologies, Canadians are projected to use more than 15% less total energy and 30% less fossil fuels by 2040. Over the time period, energy use and economic growth are forecast to continue to decouple, meaning that economic growth is expected to grow faster than energy use.
By 2040, the share of non-emitting electricity generation resources is forecast to increase to nearly 84%, compared to around 80% currently. Hydro and nuclear energy resources make up a large percentage of Canada's electricity generating mix.