Researchers from North Carolina State University created a computer simulation tool that can predict where and when pests or diseases will strike a crop field or forest. The new tool could be used to find the right time to apply pesticides or management strategies.

The new tool is called Pest or Pathogen Spread Forecasting Platform (PoPS) and was developed in collaboration with the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection service.Source: Unsplash

PoPS combines information on the right climate conditions suitable for the spread of a given disease or pest with data from recorded cases, the reproductive rate, and how the problem moves through the environment. The model improves over time as natural resource managers add data they gather from the field. The tool is easy enough for non-technical users to use so they can learn about disease management.

PoPS is currently being used to track the spread of eight emerging pests and diseases. The team has honed PoPS to track sudden oak death to study its effectiveness. Oak death has killed millions of trees in California since the 1990s. In recent years a new, more aggressive strain has been detected in Oregon. They are also working to improve the model to track the spotted lanternfly, an invasive pest that primarily infests a tree called “the tree of heaven” in the U.S. The lanternfly has been infesting crops in Pennsylvania and neighboring states since 2014 and can attack grape, apple, cherry, almond and walnut crops.

The team says that their model’s forecasting of environmental events can only improve with the addition of more data.

A paper on the new model was published in Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment.