Projected increases in global ambient temperature are likely to have implications for building heating and cooling demand. The nexus of climate change and thermal energy demand of buildings in Switzerland was examined by researchers from the Swiss Federal Laboratories for Materials Science and Technology (EMPA).

The heating and cooling requirements of the facility’s Next Evolution in Sustainable Building Technologies (NEST) research complex were analyzed and simulated with recent weather data and projected temperature trends. Extrapolation of the results to future thermal energy demand of buildings based on climate scenarios for Switzerland also considered the impacts of population growth and increased uptake of air conditioning systems.

Heating and cooling energy data from the NEST building provide the basis for benchmarking future heating and cooling energy demand in Switzerland, considering climate change, increased use of air conditioning devices and population growth. Source: EMPA

The cooling demand in Switzerland is predicted to increase significantly in all scenarios, with an additional energy demand of 5 TWh per year in moderate scenarios. If thermal energy is provided by heat pumps that can also cool, this could exert a strong impact on the overall energy system and especially on electricity as an energy carrier. The number of households with cooling systems is estimated to increase to over 50% due to an increase in cooling degree days, leading to significant demand peaks on hot days.

This research published in Applied Energy indicates that the increased energy demand for cooling could be supplied by photovoltaic cells with an area of 12 km² to 25 km² at an average power output of 100 W/m² to 200 W/m² during the hours of cooling demand.