EV Adoption Could Cut Greenhouse Gases by 64%, Says Study
Engineering360 News Desk | September 21, 2015Widespread adoption of electric vehicles could cut greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 550 million metric tons annually by 2050, says a study by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) and the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC).
The study bases its analysis on projections that the electric grid will rely more on renewable energy and non-emitting power generation. It corroborates earlier findings that a decarbonizing grid accommodating a fleet of electric vehicles would reduce emissions relative to scenarios in which transportation, industrial and other fleets continue to rely primarily on petroleum fuels.
With the widespread adoption of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs), greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions would be reduced even when compared with more efficient conventional vehicles, the study says. Electrifying vehicles and non-road equipment will lead to better air quality, the study says.
With the widespread adoption of PEVs, greenhouse gas emissions would be reduced even when compared with more efficient conventional vehicles. Image source: wikimedia.orgThe study analyzes two potential scenarios of the future electric sector: the “Base GHG” and “Lower GHG.” Both show grid emissions decreasing over time, in part because of existing and potential regulations and plausible economic conditions. In the Lower GHG scenario, further reductions in carbon emissions result from an increasing price on carbon, resulting in faster deployment of low emission generation technologies.
• In the Base GHG scenario, the study estimates that, by 2050, the electricity sector could reduce annual greenhouse gas emissions by 1,030 million metric tons relative to 2015 levels, a 45% reduction.
• In the Lower GHG scenario, the study estimates that, by 2050, the electricity sector could reduce annual greenhouse gas emissions by 1,700 million metric tons relative to 2015 levels, a 77% reduction.
The analysis modeled electric sector and transportation sector emissions with and without widespread vehicle electrification to determine the effect of electrification of light-duty vehicles, medium-duty vehicles and certain non-road equipment. The results indicate that electrification could displace emissions from conventional petroleum-fueled vehicles for each scenario.
• In the Base GHG scenario, emissions were reduced by 430 million metric tons annually in 2050—equivalent to removing 80 million passenger cars from the road.
• In the Lower GHG scenario, emissions were reduced by 550 million metric tons annually in 2050—equivalent to removing 100 million passenger cars.
When combining reductions from vehicle electrification, a cleaner electric sector and existing programs that improve conventional vehicle efficiency, the modeled electricity and transportation sectors together achieve a 48% reduction in GHG emissions between 2015 and 2050 in the Base GHG scenario, and a 70% reduction in the Lower GHG scenario. In the Lower GHG scenario, in 2050, total emissions for the electricity and transportation sectors could be cut by 2,610 million metric tons relative to 2015 levels.
While electric vehicles are cleaner than petroleum-fueled vehicles today, the greenhouse gas reductions can be maximized by charging vehicles from a cleaner grid. With a 62% share of light- and medium duty vehicles in 2050, electric vehicles would consume 13% of grid-supplied electricity, the sstudy says.
Transportation electrification can lead to modest but widespread air quality benefits. The study’s models project that PEVs can help reduce ground-level ozone and particulate matter in both urban and rural areas across the country. Air quality benefits from adoption of PEVs are expected to increase as the power system becomes cleaner and a greater portion of the transportation fleet is electrified.
