Long term models were created to show how Europe would fare using renewable energy through 2030. Source: University College CorkWind and solar energy have become popular in Europe over the last decade, quadrupling in use between 2007 and 2016.

But these technologies are susceptible to fluctuating weather patterns in the region, with long spells of low winds and overcast skies, raising concerns about the long-term viability of the renewable energy sources as a solution to the European power system.

However, new research from University College Cork, the Imperial College London and ETH Zurich indicates that despite unpredictable weather, Europe can comfortably generate at least 35 percent of its electricity from these renewables alone without major impacts on prices or system stability.

The researchers gathered 30 years of meteorological data and modeled the impact of renewable energy on the electricity sector out to the year 2030. The team analyzed the electricity system operation across Europe, including power transmission between countries and technical operational constraints. These trends allowed researchers to create a model of how Europe would fare under five different renewable energy scenarios — with varying sustainability ambitions — 12 years into the future.

"When planning future power systems with higher levels of wind and solar generation, one year of weather data analysis is not sufficient," said Seán Collins, a researcher of the Marine and Renewable Energy Centre at University College Cork. "We find that single-year studies could yield results that deviate by as much as 9 percent from the long-term average at a European level and even more at a country level. When there are legally binding targets on carbon emissions and the share of renewable energy, or promises to avoid sharp price hikes, this makes all the difference."

Using multiple years allowed the researchers to better understand the way other variables respond as wind and solar energy penetrate the market. In future scenarios, the team found that CO₂ emissions and total energy generation costs fluctuate wildly in these scenarios. When weather-dependent resources come into play, these scenarios can become up to five times more uncertain. However, Europe could withstand these variables well thanks to its close integration — with Europe using renewables for more than two-thirds of its electricity by 2030, including one-third coming from wind and solar, researchers said.

The models could help policymakers better understand the reliability and impact of renewable energy, including the impacts of a shift to 100 percent renewable electricity systems.

The full research can be found in the journal Joule.