Global photovoltaic (PV) solar installations will rise to 45.4 gigawatts (GW) in 2014, with 32% of this total, or 14.4 GW, coming in the fourth quarter, according to IHS Technology.

IHS trimmed its forecast for 2014 by 1.5 GW due to weaker-than-predicted performance in several key markets. Even so, a 20% increase is still forecast in installations from 37.8 GW in 2013.

Driven by strong demand in China and the United States, the final quarter of the year will again be the largest in terms of new installations. IHS predicts that these two countries alone will account for more than half of all global demand in the final quarter of 2014.

Information is derived from the Q3 2014 PV Demand Market Tracker from the Solar service at IHS.

Throughout 2014, IHS has expressed doubts over China’s capability to meet the ambitious targets the government set for distributed PV (DPV) in 2014. After a recent adjustment from its government, the country’s overall target of 13 GW is now in line with the IHS forecast.

However, IHS predicts that ground-mount PV will still dominate the market this year and account for 8.5 GW of installations. DPV is struggling to overcome barriers, including the lack of suitable rooftops and difficulties in obtaining financing.

Installations in the U.S. are forecast to follow a similar seasonal pattern in the final quarter. Installations have been ramping up throughout the year, and IHS predicts that 33% of U.S. installations in 2014 will be completed in the fourth quarter.